Tag Archives: Coronavirus

Smarter Than The Average Bear Market

Bear, Grizzly Bear, Brown Bear, Zoo

Please excuse the clickety-clack of my keyboard while I type ferociously thus, breaking the eloquent silence of God and nature.

As I write this the U.S. is in the midst of a global health pandemic. The Coronavirus has caused worldwide panic the likes of which I have never seen.

What is being labeled as Black Monday 2020, March 9, the Dow’s worst single-day point drop in U.S. market history. A record $20.2 billion has been pulled from stocks on March 13, the largest daily outflow ever.

This is different from the financial crisis of 2008-09, as it was a mortgage crisis not a health crisis then, but this is now what will likely lead to a financial and housing crisis. The economy has gone into a recession.

There were 3.3 million unemployment applications submitted last week alone. They are estimating 3.5 million submissions next week.

Over 500,000 workers across the hospitality, retail, and restaurant sectors have been furloughed indefinitely.

Store shelves are bare and low on necessities. Milk, bread, and eggs are some of the first items to go. Toilet paper is now the currency of the realm.

Schools, churches, libraries and hair salons are closed. It is pretty certain that millions of small businesses will close and never open their doors again.

Many large retailers may become insolvent and close their doors permanently.

Rent strikes are popping up all over the country in response to stay-at-home and shelter-in-place orders from state governors. However, it is April 1st and the rent is due.

As all of this is going on around me, I have to make a judgment call.

My hand is hovering over the buy button in my 401(k) account. My inner voice is saying go for it. You did the math. You did like financial blogger FIREcracker said and I mathed shit up! I knew I could come out ahead when the markets rebound. Stocks are on sale. I’m going down to the mat with the bear market. I’ve been here before and come back up every time. I take a deep breath and hit submit.

I have now bought over a hundred shares of various stocks as of March 31. Before, the market started crashing I transferred over $84,000 out of multiple stock funds and placed my bet on one Vanguard 500 index fund over the last two years. Why you ask? I’m taking my cues from a historical data approach and a sprinkle of Buffet wisdom.

Back in 2013, in a letter to shareholders, Buffet gave a piece of advice to the trustee of his estate after he passes, “wife’s inheritance has been told to put 90% of her money into a stock index fund and 10% into short-term government bonds.”

A portfolio set for a 90/10 allocation over a period from 1900-2014 had a fail rate of 2.3%. That means a success rate of 97.7%! Therefore, I am not scared.

Others are panicking, but I choose to keep a cool head. My investing advice is sprinkle some Buffet on it. It’s the wild west out here. I could place a huge bet and get my wings clipped like Icarus for traveling too close to the fire of the market. After all, it is a fire sale on stocks going on right now.

However, I can’t let fear stop me. I have weighed the risks. And decided to take those calculated risks.

You see I have 100 years of stock market knowledge behind me. Past results do not guarantee future results, but whenever history turns it backs on the market, then during the rally the market turns it back on you.

Those who do not feed the beast are later consumed by it. Financial literacy has been my guiding light in these dark times we suddenly found ourselves in.

I have been thrown in a cave with the bear market, but like Yogi, I have learned to be smarter than the average bear.

Some of you may be surprised that I am using Yogi Bear as inspiration to invest, but let’s not forget he always seemed to outsmart Ranger Smith and get that coveted picnic basket.

Yogi Bear - Wikipedia
Image from Wikipedia

Therefore, fear will not take me under for I have knowledge my friends. And knowledge is the slayer of fear. While Buffy slays vampires, I slay market gyrations.

I like to take Buffet’s advice to bet on America. He says, “From a standing start 240 years ago — a span of time less than triple my days on earth — Americans have combined human ingenuity, a market system, a tide of talented and ambitious immigrants, and the rule of law to deliver abundance beyond any dreams of our forefathers.”

Yes, indeed America has.

That is incredible growth for a country that was just started with 13 original colonies in 1607 to become the biggest economy in the world, as other civilizations are far older than America.

It must have felt the same way for Neal Armstrong when he took those first steps on the moon for mankind in 1968.

That is incredible growth to go from walking on the ground, to the rocket, to the moon considering less than 70 years ago man had just learned how to fly in a little place called Kitty Hawk.

And when I threw open my personal finance go-to book, it looks as if I am not the only one who calls on the sage advice of the finance world’s Obi-Wan.

I found that financial blogger J.D. Roth of Get Rich Slowly also listens to the man they call “The Oracle of Omaha” Warren Buffet.

Here is an excerpt from the 2009 New York Times best-selling book I Will Teach You to be Rich: No Guilt. No Excuses. No BS. Just a 6-Week Program That Works by Ramit Sethi. The blog post was titled: HOW TO WRESTLE WITH A BEAR—AND WIN Why I’m Not Worried About the Economy.

Wall Street is fear-stricken it will have banks and businesses go under and lose countless millions in the process.

Main Street is panicked that it can’t make rent to pay Wall Street.

When Wall Street head honcho and real estate billionaire Thomas Barrack Jr. speaks of commercial mortgages being on the brink of collapse, you spark panic all around you.

Mr. Barrack of Colony Capital predicts a “domino effect” of catastrophic economic consequences without prompt action to keep borrowers from defaulting.

I know that may keep some people on the bench, but I prefer to keep swinging for the fences.

You’ll never get a hit from the dugout.

Millionaires are made of Teflon. They keep betting when the house is cleaning up. They just keep on swinging. You miss 100% of every shot you don’t take.

I once remember reading that millionaire’s know they are made by saving ten bucks at a time.

Pundits are instilling fear when they should be telling long-term investors to stay the course. The wealthy know better. They keep investing because that’s what winners do.

Millionaires are smarter than the average bear.

Suze Orman’s FIRE Protection Plan During The COVID-19 Crisis: $5 Million And A 3-Year Emergency Fund

English: Writer and TV finance expert Suze Orm...
Image via Wikipedia

Here is Suze Orman’s FIRE protection gear: $5 million dollars to retire early. Really? Do tell. Care to elaborate. Absolutely.

It was around late 2018 that I heard talk of Suze Orman’s thoughts on the FIRE movement.

The rumblings in the financial blogsphere was that when Suze was asked her opinion about the FIRE movement on the Paula Pant podcast Afford Anything and she says, “I hate it, I hate it, I hate it.”

Suze told Paula Pant that $2 million isn’t enough for early retirement. At a 4 percent withdrawal rate, that’s $80,000 per year, which she says isn’t enough to protect you “when the floods come.”

“If you only have a few hundred thousand, or a million, or two million dollars, I’m here to tell you … if a catastrophe happens, if something happens, what are you going to do? You are going to burn up alive.”

The “Suze Slapdown” of ’18 was coined. And I thought watching WWE Smackdown was tough. Whew! They ain’t got nothing on Suze when it comes to laying the smackdown on finances.

She made headlines for saying that people who buy a daily latte are “peeing $1 million down the drain as you are drinking that coffee.” On Suze’s watch, spending at Starbucks SBUX is a no-no.

Let’s not drop out of corporate America on a whim and stop working. Get back to work.

Check out the tweet below that 2020 Democratic Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders tweeted out last year to see what I mean.

Suze Orman’s the sky is falling attitude about retiring early is not so far-fetched now during the coronavirus.

For anyone who isn’t up to speed on the FIRE acronym, it stands for Financial Independence, Retire Early. I am all for Financial Independence (FI).

This is me. Financial Independence: count me in!

Retire Early: slow down tito!

The focus of FIRE is to retire early by stopping the corporate grind and ending the rat race in your 30s or 40s, and not 55 or 65.

However, I am not yet ready to be put out to pasture. Luckily, other leaders in the FIRE movement gave some clarification and said that FIRE is not about stopping work, but finding your passion and earning passive income streams that keeps the money flowing.

The goal is to live life On. Your. Terms. So, I thought to myself okay. I can live with that.

Saving 25 times your current income and then retiring before age 40 without continuing to make money is risky.

The notion is that you can then afford to live off of your savings by limiting your withdrawals to just 4% of your assets each year.

Meaning if you earn $75,000 a year, then you need to save about $1.9 million before walking away from work. Money that was supposed to last starting from age 65, now has to starting from age 35.

I think what got Suze in an uproar was when an audience member asked her about her plans on FIRE that was posted on MarketWatch.

The millennial had caught the FIRE bug and she was looking to hang it up within two years.

“Well, how much money do you have?” Orman asked. “Two or three million?”

No.

“A million?”

No.

“$250,000?”

Yes, but with some debt.

“Really?” Orman could only shake her head. 

Don’t talk to me about it. If that’s what you want to do, go ahead. But 40 years from now, I hope you remember everything I’ve said.”— Suze Orman, on retiring in your 20s

According to Suze, “time is the most important ingredient in your financial recipe.”

As financial blogger Mr. Money Mustache put it bluntly: “In the interview, Suze Orman goes on and on about what might go wrong, and how you need an incredible amount of money saved to protect you, just in case. But this thinking is completely backwards – money will not cure your fear, as megamillionaire Suze proves so clearly. Most high-income people are still within just a few paychecks of insolvency, because it is possible to blow almost any paycheck, simply by adding or upgrading more cars, houses, and vacations. Physical health FIRST: Salads and barbells every day, no goddamned excuses.”

Real estate financial expert and FIRE member Coach Carson posted some great advice on Suze’s opinion: “As Paula said after the interview, we should all make a practice of listening deeply to others (especially if you disagree). If you can reserve judgment temporarily, you can always learn something.”

Coach Carson says time not money is the most precious thing we have. The biggest regret is time wasted when people are on their deathbed. People do not wish they worked more or spent more time in that cubicle or corner office.

Very true. Washington Post financial columnist, Michelle Singletary, also weighed in on the interview. She says “let’s also put this debate in perspective. Many people aren’t saving enough to retire at all – early or late.”

I remember when my portfolio hit $100,000. It took half the time to get the next $100,000 and zoom to $200,000. Next stop, $250,000. That’s right a quarter of a million.

Then I was looking to moving on up like The Jeffersons to the tune of $300,000, $400,000, $500,000 and beyond. I only move forwards. I never look backwards. I could still work for another 30 years if I want to. Without putting in another penny, if I let this money ride I could have between $1 million and $2.6 million dollars. And that is if I stop investing. There is no way I am doing that.

I live for today. I live in the moment. I stop and smell the roses. I enjoy the present, but save like I am going to live forever.

Stop worrying about the world ending today. It’s already tomorrow in Australia. – Charles M. Schulz, creator of the Peanuts

I like to plan in advance. I have a plan to create a plan.

“If plan A doesn’t work, the alphabet has 25 more letters – 204 if you’re in Japan.”― Claire Cook, Seven Year Switch

If I want something, then I go get if. I get off my duff and go make it happen. Don’t complain. Go do something about it. To quote Mindy Kaling, “We are all just a treadmill and six laser hair removal treatments from being Ryan Reynolds and Blake Lively.”

Ask for credit when you don’t need it. Credit dries up like tears in a recession. That’s just my two cents. Back in the 2008-09 recession, they cut my credit lines in half. Overnight *poof* half my credit limits were gone. Like a puff of smoke.

The thing is that work gives us something to do. It lets humans be productive.

If you have $1.5 million at age 65, you have a much shorter retirement to spend on versus at 37.

What really makes the difference is that by age 55-60 many people are empty nesters, own a home, and already own most of their possessions.

You have a lot less things to buy because you have what you need already.

When you are 35, you may still have no kids, are just starting, or have a young family. You have costs that are still rising like inflation.

Empty nesters are not worried about paying for college. Its paid for. That’s in their rear-view. Juniors 529 is spent.

If you are still raising kids, it is likely you will need a decent income and a job. Kids cost…a lot. Most people are still buying homes, cars and having kids well into their 40s these days.

One of the biggest expenses that a job helps subsidize is healthcare.

Financial blogger Financial Samurai puts this into perspective: “Just know that once you get to your target number, you might find that your needs have changed. Life is unpredictable. A job helps you subsidize health care costs that are increasingly becoming a racket IMO, but it would help reduce our $2,380/month health care bill. However, I am grateful for every day.”

You want to retire early. Here is what Suze has to say.

Orman: “It would have to be in the millions . . . You need at least $5 million, $6 million.” (She later says $10 million to account for taxes.)

FIRE proponents fired back at Orman that she has it all wrong.

Really? When a government shutdown causes people to be in soup kitchen lines, then I beg to differ. Here were some of the things I read online during the 35-day government shutdown last year:

  • “I only have $1.06 in my bank account. I don’t know what I am going to do.”
  • “I can’t pay my bills.”
  • “I can’t afford groceries.”
  • “I’m scared I won’t be able to pay my rent or mortgage.”
  • “I can’t miss one paycheck.”

Not even one check? Even I try to keep a minimum of $10,000 in the bank at all times in savings. Just in case sh*t happens. I need that rainy day fund because when it rains it pours. Keeping a 3-6 month rainy day fund is what helps me sleep at night.

Now to be fair, the FIRE movement is about saving and investing your money. The more, the better. If you are practicing FIRE, then, in theory, you should be able to weather any storm.

Meanwhile, Orman isn’t sweating her emergence as somewhat of a villain in the FIRE community.

Now that COVID-19 has swept across the globe, it looks as if Suze may have been on to something when she always says, “hope for the best, but always plan for the worst.”

On one of her most recent podcasts she stated that a lot of her advice on saving that eight-month emergency fund has come to roost. She now thinks you need a 3-year emergency fund.

I have always been more about FI than RE because no matter what happens in this world, I know one thing to be sure; you will always need money in the bank.

Now I’m going to sign off on this post the same way Suze Orman ended her show on CNBC every night, “now you stay safe.”

So until next time…please be safe.

Don’t Let The Coronavirus Stop You From Investing

Coronavirus, Virus, Mouth Guard

If you were part of the millions who lost a small fortune in the 2008-2009 financial crisis, then this Coronvirus fear and stock market shocks should be a cakewalk for you.

It felt just like this a decade ago, but it lasted for like 15 months.

Image result for running in panic gif

But I’m here to tell you, “Don’t panic.” Since the Great Depression, America has survived World War II, The Cuban Missile Crisis, SARS, 9/11, and the Great Financial Crisis.

As Annie once sang: The sun will come out Tomorrow Bet your bottom dollar That tomorrow There’ll be sun!

We will get through this. You just have to buckle up and get through the ride like any rollercoaster; it has to come to an end.

Markets dropped 1,100 points on Thursday. That just means stocks are on sale.

Image result for stock market drop 2020

I’m strolling down the stock market isles grabbing everything I can get my hands on.

Image result for shop til you drop gif

This isn’t the time to hide. Stay and fight for your 401(k). It’s the time to run to the nearest online brokerage and scoop up some stocks on sale.

Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $100 Billion cash just waiting for another 2008-2009 so they can get those deals.

Nobody wants to pay $3,000 for one share of the S&P when you can get it for cheaper.

So go out there and find some bargains!

SHOULD YOU BUY OR SALE

Fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffet

I once read a story about a famous investor who in 1939, when World War II began in Europe, the 26-year-old investor borrowed $10,000 and bought 100 shares each in 104 companies that were selling at $1 a share or less, including 34 in bankruptcy.

A few years later, he made large profits on 100 of the companies; four turned out to be worthless.

This became the foundation for his $13 Billion global growth fund and the start of his road to wealth. He did not let fear stop him. His own the world philosophy made him a billionaire.

Sir Templeton looked fear in the face and marched ahead anyway.

Trust your gut and don’t make any decisions unless you know what you want to do. Fear is no place to make decisions from.

When you are coming from a place of great loss, you don’t sell the house, cut your hair, or make any big decisions until you are back in a place of control over your emotions. At least, that is what all the books say.

Same rules apply when investing. Buy when you are knowledgeable and ready. Not scared.

Knowledge is the slayer of fear.

FLIP A COIN

I could tell you what you should buy. The gurus and financial pundits will tell you that you should invest in this or that, blah, blah, blah, etc. etc.

Well here at Greenbacks Magnet, we keep it simple.

Just buy a good quality total index fund and keep it moving.

Studies have shown that no one can time the market. If you put 25 random stocks on a dartboard, you could do no worse than an active fund manager could by throwing darts to pick your investments.

It’s like the flip of a coin. 50/50 odds or worse. Tails you lose. Heads the house wins.

If you buy the whole market, you are bound to get some winners in there.

PUT YOUR FACE MASK ON FIRST

They say face masks are being bought up all over the world.

The mark up is getting unbelievable as some places are charging three times the normal going rate.

The surgeon general says masks are only good for those already infected to not continue to spread the virus.

Those that are healthy are wasting their money because a mask will not stop them from catching it.

Therefore, instead of wasting money on overpriced masks just invest in the company that makes them. They are making a killing right now!

Increase your wealth portfolio and put on your fiscal facemask for your future generations.

Your future self will thank you for investing that money.